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Medicine and Health

The onset of the next pandemic may occur sooner than anticipated. What will the appearance be?

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Half a decade ago, the notion of a global shutdown lasting for weeks would have been inconceivable. However, the concept of mass graves in New York City, a US Republican administration implementing a seemingly universal basic income, and a small number of individuals self-administering an ineffective horse dewormer to treat a virus would also be considered.

Presently, all of it appears to be not just feasible but outdated information. Having experienced and overcome the COVID-19 epidemic, what is the next anticipated event in the ongoing pandemic?

From whence will the forthcoming pandemic originate?
If we possessed knowledge of the nature and timing of the upcoming epidemic, we would take proactive measures to address it. However, the current situation necessitates a hopeful outlook and proactive preparation for potential negative outcomes.

“Undoubtedly, there are individuals who express concerns that this could potentially induce panic,” stated Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), during a panel in January 2024 regarding “Disease X,”  a provisional term for the yet-to-be-identified disease that is expected to have a widespread impact on the world in the near future.

He presented a counterargument. “It is more advantageous to proactively anticipate potential events, as they have occurred frequently in our past, and make necessary preparations.” We should not confront situations without enough preparation.

What is the consensus among specialists regarding the probable nature of disease X? There are several candidates in the competition: “We compile a yearly inventory of emerging diseases,” Ghebreyesus clarified, “and MERS, Zika, Ebola, and others could potentially be included.” COVID could be referred to as the inaugural disease X.

Possible scenarios for the emergence of the forthcoming pandemic encompass a spectrum of possibilities, spanning from speculative catastrophic scenarios wherein global warming triggers the release of previously unidentified viruses from arctic ice, akin to the depiction in the Chris Pratt time travel film, to alarmingly plausible instances of disease transmission from the animal kingdom, akin to the events that transpired shortly prior to the previous pandemic.

If you have observed a consistent pattern among those choices, you are correct: due to climate change, deforestation in the Amazon and Africa, and the increasing intrusion of human settlements into the natural environment, numerous experts believe that the occurrence of the next zoonotic disease pandemic is highly likely.

According to Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases at King’s College London, the current circumstances are conducive to the occurrence of epidemics.

According to her statement, the duration of the situation could range from two years to 20 years or even longer. However, she emphasized the importance of maintaining vigilance. It is imperative to maintain a state of vigilance, preparedness, and readiness to make sacrifices once more.

How can we address this issue?
In the absence of knowledge on the kind or timing of the upcoming pandemic, how can we effectively make the necessary preparations? Indeed, it is simpler than one may anticipate: “We can make arrangements for unforeseen circumstances,” stated Ghebreyesus; “there are fundamental actions that can be taken.”

He proposed the establishment of an early warning system or the enhancement of preparedness plans. “Due to the COVID pandemic, our hospitals were overwhelmed, both in terms of physical capacity and staff,” he emphasized.

The speaker further asserted that the COVID pandemic has brought to light some deficiencies within medical supply chains, perhaps leading to the closure of gaps.

Adam Kucharski, co-director of the Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, stated to Sky News that the UK’s NHS COVID app showed great potential for containing the spread of the pandemic.

He acknowledged that it would take difficult conversations regarding the compromises between public health and personal privacy. “However, by utilizing the digital contact tracing infrastructure present in certain Asian countries, it is possible to restrict disruption to individuals who are at a greater risk during a specific outbreak, rather than resorting to general measures.”

Frankly speaking, everything seemed highly feasible. Is it being done?

Navigating the upcoming epidemic
With minimal logistical planning and the inclusion of AI ethics courses, we should undoubtedly successfully navigate the upcoming pandemic. Is that correct?

Regrettably, that appears improbable at present. John Bell, a prominent immunologist and part of the UK’s Covid vaccination team during the epidemic, expressed in The Independent last year that despite our extensive knowledge, we are not adequately prepared for the upcoming pandemic.

He cautioned that the forthcoming epidemic has the potential to be considerably more catastrophic than its predecessor. It is imperative that we maintain a perpetual level of preparedness for forthcoming significant health crises, as failure to take action at present will result in a lack of forgiveness.

In the United States, the establishment of a novel governmental entity dedicated to global health and the prevention of pandemics may appear to be a positive progression. However, numerous commentators have highlighted that the country lacks essential infrastructure to withstand a pandemic. Notably, there is no universal healthcare system, and European readers should take a moment to understand that there is no entitlement to paid sick leave. Undoubtedly, during the COVID pandemic, about 25% of Americans had to make a decision between working while ill or forfeiting a day’s salary.

Despite experiencing significant global repercussions due to the global spread of COVID-19, the United States as an institution appears to have a notable reluctance to acquire substantial knowledge from the pandemic. Recent modeling estimates indicate that treatments such as social distancing and mask-wearing have proven to be highly effective in mitigating the transmission of the pandemic. Similarly, vaccines have demonstrated remarkable efficacy, resulting in the preservation of about 20 million lives within the initial year of their introduction. However, the country is witnessing the ongoing expansion of anti-vacxx and anti-science movements, which are permeating politics and exerting influence on legislation at both municipal and state levels.

Put simply, it appears unappealing.

The subsequent periods of lockdown
The Covid pandemic took us off guard, and there is a possibility that we may be taken off guard once more. What will the appearance of that be? A recurrence of the events of 2020, or an entirely distinct occurrence?

It is indisputable that significant changes have occurred since 2019, prior to the widespread awareness of the terms “novel coronavirus” or “Covid-19”. Irrespective of their level of effectiveness or extent of implementation, it is really accurate to say that numerous countries have already established pandemic infrastructure that was previously absent. This includes the implementation of contact-tracing applications and the provision of more flexible work arrangements for employees.

If the supply chain difficulties are rectified promptly, vaccine rollouts should be expedited. According to Devi Sridhar, the chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the US National Academy of Sciences’ committee on advancing pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine preparedness and response in 2021, the majority of governments are actively pursuing the objective of containing the spread of a virus within a 100-day timeframe. This timeframe allows for the approval, manufacturing, and distribution of scientific interventions, such as vaccines, diagnostic tools, or treatments, to the general public. This statement was published in The Guardian during the current week.

“In the United States, the recommended duration is 130 days from the identification of a pathogen until the entire population of the United States is provided with a vaccine,” she clarified, “and 200 days until there is a sufficient global supply.”

The nature of future lockdowns may vary significantly depending on geographical location, maybe resulting in the absence of lockdown measures altogether. “Shutdowns are a drastic policy measure that numerous governments employed in 2020 as a means to address the healthcare crisis,” Sridhar stated. “We currently have the opportunity to enhance containment methods and investigate strategies to ensure the safe operation of schools and businesses through more accurate public health interventions. These interventions should focus on improving understanding of transmission (such as increasing ventilation), diagnostics (testing for infectiousness), and data collection (surveillance of community prevalence).”

The successful implementation of preparedness procedures, as advocated by public health organizations over an extended period, is contingent upon the active engagement of governments and, when applicable, the business sector. This implies that—what about the upcoming pandemic? The appearance of it is uncertain.

As Editor here at GeekReply, I'm a big fan of all things Geeky. Most of my contributions to the site are technology related, but I'm also a big fan of video games. My genres of choice include RPGs, MMOs, Grand Strategy, and Simulation. If I'm not chasing after the latest gear on my MMO of choice, I'm here at GeekReply reporting on the latest in Geek culture.

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Medicine and Health

UnitedHealth reports that cybercriminals obtained health information for a significant section of the American population

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UnitedHealth Group, a major health insurance company, has verified that a ransomware attack targeted its health tech subsidiary, Change Healthcare, early this year. This cyber attack led to a significant breach of sensitive healthcare data belonging to American individuals.

UnitedHealth announced on Monday that a group of cybercriminals using ransomware gained access to files holding personal data and protected health information. The company stated that the affected data may encompass a significant section of the American population.

The health insurance corporation did not disclose the exact number of affected persons but stated that the process of examining the data is expected to span over several months. Only after this thorough analysis will the firm commence informing the affected individuals about the theft of their information in the hack.

Modify Healthcare manages insurance and billing for a large number of hospitals, pharmacies, and medical practices in the U.S. healthcare industry. It has extensive access to a vast amount of health data on almost 50% of the American population.

UnitedHealth stated that it has not yet observed any indication of doctors’ charts or complete medical histories being illicitly removed from its systems.

The acknowledgment that cybercriminals illicitly acquired personal health information of American citizens is made one week subsequent to the emergence of a new hacking collective, which commenced releasing fragments of the pilfered data with the intention of coercing the targeted organization into paying an additional ransom.

The group, known as RansomHub, released numerous files on its hidden internet leak platform, including the personal data of patients and internal documents associated with Change Healthcare. RansomHub threatened to auction the pilfered data unless Change Healthcare complied with their demand for a ransom.

UnitedHealth spokesperson Tyler Mason acknowledged that the corporation made payments to the cybercriminals, as stated in a communication. The corporation made a payment as a demonstration of its dedication to safeguarding patient data from being revealed. The company declined to disclose the sum it paid.

RansomHub is the second criminal organization to request a payment from Change Healthcare in exchange for releasing a hostage. According to reports, the prominent health technology company paid a sum of $22 million to a criminal organization known as ALPHV, based in Russia, in March. However, the criminal gang vanished after receiving the payment, leaving the affiliate responsible for the data theft without their share of the ransom.

RansomHub stated in their article, along with the released stolen data, that they possess the data and not ALPHV.

UnitedHealth, in its statement on Monday, recognized the publication of certain files but refrained from asserting ownership of the documents. UnitedHealth clarified that the information sent is not an official breach notification.

According to a story by The Wall Street Journal on Monday, the criminal hacking group associated with ALPHV gained unauthorized access to Change Healthcare’s network by utilizing stolen login information for a system that enables remote network access. The hackers infiltrated Change Healthcare’s network for a duration exceeding one week prior to implementing ransomware, thereby enabling them to pilfer substantial quantities of data from the company’s systems.

The cyberattack on Change Healthcare commenced on February 21, leading to persistent and extensive disruptions in the operations of pharmacies and hospitals throughout the United States. Physicians, pharmacists, and hospitals faced difficulties for several weeks in confirming patient benefits for drug delivery, managing inpatient care, and obtaining prior authorizations required for procedures.

A significant portion of the healthcare system in the United States came to a standstill, causing financial strain for healthcare providers due to increasing backlogs and persistent outages.

Last Monday, UnitedHealth disclosed that the ransomware attack had resulted in losses exceeding $870 million. The company’s sales for the first quarter of the year amounted to $99.8 billion, surpassing the expectations of Wall Street experts.

Andrew Witty, the CEO of UnitedHealth, is scheduled to testify before House members on May 1. Witty received over $21 million in total remuneration for the entire year of 2022.

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Medicine and Health

Scientist Investigating SARS-CoV-2 Virus Suggests Possible Indications of Simulation Existence

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A physicist specializing in the study of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 virus has put forward intriguing evidence supporting a potential new law of physics known as the “second law of infodynamics.”. This discovery raises fascinating questions about the nature of our reality and the possibility of living in a simulated universe. In addition, he suggests that the study seems to suggest that the theory of evolution is incorrect, as it challenges the notion that mutations are completely random.

There is a great deal of complexity to delve into in this situation. It is important to note that making extraordinary claims necessitates providing extraordinary evidence. However, as Dr. Melvin Vopson elucidates in his research, we currently lack such evidence. Actually, we are far from reaching that point. Nevertheless, the concepts and findings presented are captivating and thought-provoking, even if additional research or examination may later disprove them.

In his most recent study, Vopson examined mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 virus from a unique perspective, focusing on information entropy rather than the traditional concept of entropy.

“The physical entropy of a given system is a measure of all its possible physical microstates compatible with the macrostate,” Vopson explained in the paper. “This is a property of the microstates in the system that do not carry any information.” Given the same system and the ability to generate N information states within it (such as by encoding digital bits), creating N information states results in the formation of N extra information microstates that overlap with the existing physical microstates. These extra microstates contain valuable information, and the increase in entropy they bring is known as information entropy.”

According to Vopson, there is a tendency for entropy to increase over time, but interestingly, information entropy tends to decrease. Consider the heat death of the universe, where the entire cosmos eventually reaches a state of thermal equilibrium. At this stage, the maximum value of entropy has been attained, although not in terms of information entropy. During heat death (or just before), the temperature range and potential states in any part of the universe become extremely limited. As a result, the number of possible events decreases and the amount of superimposed information decreases, leading to a decrease in information entropy.

Although it may offer an intriguing perspective on the universe, can it provide us with any novel insights, or is it merely a secondary and insignificant approach to describing entropy? According to Vopson, the concept has the potential to be a fundamental law that could impact a wide range of fields, including genetics and the evolution of the universe.

“Based on my research, it seems that the second law of infodynamics is an essential principle in cosmology.” According to Vopson’s article in The Conversation, this has broad applicability and significant scientific implications. “It is understood that the universe undergoes expansion while maintaining a constant total entropy, without any heat loss or gain.” However, it is important to note that entropy always increases according to the principles of thermodynamics. This indicates the presence of an additional form of entropy, namely information entropy, that serves to counterbalance the increase.

With the expertise of a seasoned scientist, Vopson observed the ever-changing SARS-CoV-2 virus throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regular sequencing of the virus has been conducted to closely monitor its changes, primarily with the aim of developing new vaccines. Examining the RNA instead of DNA, he discovered a gradual decrease in information entropy.

One fascinating example of a rapidly mutating organism is a virus. According to Vopson, the pandemic has provided an exceptional opportunity for research, with the numerous variants of SARS-CoV-2 serving as an unprecedented test sample. The amount of data available is truly remarkable, as stated in a press release.

The COVID data provides strong evidence for the second law of infodynamics, and this research has the potential to unlock countless possibilities. Imagine examining a specific genome and determining the potential benefits of a mutation before it occurs. This technology has the potential to revolutionize various fields, such as genetic therapies, the pharmaceutical industry, evolutionary biology, and pandemic research.

According to Vopson’s perspective, this implies that mutations are not haphazard but rather subject to a governing principle that dictates that information entropy should either remain constant or decrease over time. If this discovery is verified, it would be truly remarkable, as it challenges our current understanding of evolution. Vopson draws attention to a previous experiment conducted in 1972, where a virus unexpectedly experienced a decrease in its genome over 74 generations under optimal conditions. He argues that this observation aligns with his second law of infodynamics.

“Mutations occur randomly and are then subject to natural selection, which determines their impact on an organism,” he explained. What if there’s an underlying process that fuels these mutations? Whenever we encounter something beyond our comprehension, we tend to label it as ‘random’, ‘chaotic’, or ‘paranormal’, when in reality, it is simply our own limitation in explaining it.

By adopting a deterministic perspective, we have the potential to harness the laws of physics to anticipate and forecast genetic mutations, or even their likelihood, prior to their occurrence.

Vopson suggests that the law could potentially provide an explanation for the prevalence of symmetry in the universe.

“A high level of symmetry is associated with a state of low information entropy, which aligns with the requirements of the second law of infodynamics,” stated Vopson in his paper. “Therefore, this fascinating observation seems to provide an explanation for the prevalence of symmetry in the universe; it can be attributed to the influence of the second law of information dynamics.”

The audacious assertions (with their need for additional evidence) don’t end there.

“According to Vopson in The Conversation, the second law of infodynamics is a cosmological necessity and seems to have a universal application. This suggests that the entire universe might be a simulated construct or a massive computer.”

“In order to efficiently run a simulation of our incredibly complex universe, it would be necessary to incorporate data optimization and compression techniques. This would help reduce the computational power and data storage requirements needed for the simulation.” This is precisely what we see happening everywhere, from digital data and biological systems to mathematical symmetries and the vast expanse of the universe.”

Confirmation of the “second law of infodynamics” wouldn’t necessarily imply that we are living in a simulation. It’s important to consider that the theory could still hold true even if that scenario isn’t the case. There are additional quantum mechanical effects that seem to indicate that we are not.

So, what are the next steps for testing this further? According to the principles of infodynamics, it is believed that information possesses mass, enabling it to interact with all other entities. There are indications that this might be true, as suggested by a study conducted in 2012 that found that irreversible erasure of information seems to release heat. According to Vopson’s findings, it suggests that this energy needs to be converted into mass before it can be erased, essentially treating information as a distinct form of matter that is on par with mass and energy.

Experimentally determining whether information possesses mass may not pose a significant challenge. Performing a basic experiment involves measuring the mass of a hard drive both before and after irreversible information erasure. Regrettably, our current capabilities are insufficient to handle the minute mass change anticipated.

However, if this theory holds true, it is highly probable that elementary particles would contain valuable self-information, as suggested by Vopson. For example, consider the fascinating process of informing an electron (perhaps the sole electron in the entire universe) about its unique characteristics, such as its charge and spin. An interesting experiment involves colliding particles and antiparticles at high velocities.

“The experiment entails eradicating the information stored within elementary particles by allowing them and their antiparticles (mirror images of the particles with opposite charge) to annihilate, resulting in a burst of energy known as ‘photons’ or light particles,” explained Vopson. “I have accurately determined the anticipated range of frequencies for the photons that will be produced using principles from information physics.”

Although the concept may not align with conventional thinking, the experiment comes at a relatively affordable price of $180,000 (which is insignificant for advocates of simulation theory like Elon Musk) and can be tested using existing technology. Indeed, it may provide valuable insights into the validity of the concept. Exploring this idea could prove to be intriguing, as we aim to either dismiss it or determine its significance in terms of mass.

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Medicine and Health

Vaccine Breakthrough Could Mean Future-Proof Shots Without Boosters

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A novel vaccine platform could eliminate boosters for some diseases since one dose could cover all future viral strains. It’s only been tried in mice, but researchers are optimistic.

“This could be the universal vaccine that we have been looking for,” said UC Riverside virologist Rong Hai.

The vaccination contains live, attenuated virus. Many vaccines, including MMR and chickenpox, use a similar mechanism. Unlike them, the new vaccines won’t require the immune system to respond to the infection. RNA interference (RNAi) will be activated instead.

Though it sounds like COVID-19’s mRNA vaccines, it operates differently.

As an immunological response to viral infection, hosts—people, mice, and others—produce short interfering RNAs. “These RNAi knock down the virus,” said lead author Shouwei Ding, renowned microbiology professor.

By generating proteins that prevent RNAi, viruses can avoid this response, but weakening them first solves the problem. It can replicate, but the host RNAi response wins. This weakened virus can be utilized as a vaccination to improve our RNAi immune system, Ding said.

Mutating won’t help either. “Viruses may mutate in vaccine-untargeted areas. We target their entire genome with thousands of tiny RNAs, Hai said. “They cannot escape this.”

The idea that RNAi can help people fight viral infections has been controversial, but over the last decade, several researchers have begun studying RNAi-based treatments.

The novel vaccine platform has another major benefit. Since it doesn’t require B and T cells, it could be utilized in very young babies or persons with immunological problems who can’t receive live vaccines.

The researchers designed a Nodamura mouse virus vaccination to test this. Mice genetically engineered to eliminate B and T immune cells received one shot. That one shot protected them from the Nodamura virus for at least three months, a considerable period considering mice typically live two to three years.

Since newborn mice can manufacture short RNAs, the vaccine worked in them, making it suitable for babies too young to receive immunizations.

A previous study suggests that flu infection triggers the RNAi system; therefore, that’s their next target. To reduce needle anxiety, they want to create a nasal spray vaccine.

We’ll apply this idea to create a flu vaccination for infants next. If we succeed, they won’t need their moms’ antibodies, added Ding.

It’s still early, but if it works, applying the method to other infections should be easy.

Ding said, “Dengue, SARS, and COVID are well-known human pathogens. They share viral functions. For easy knowledge transfer, this should apply to these viruses.”

The paper appears in PNAS.

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