Half a decade ago, the notion of a global shutdown lasting for weeks would have been inconceivable. However, the concept of mass graves in New York City, a US Republican administration implementing a seemingly universal basic income, and a small number of individuals self-administering an ineffective horse dewormer to treat a virus would also be considered.

Presently, all of it appears to be not just feasible but outdated information. Having experienced and overcome the COVID-19 epidemic, what is the next anticipated event in the ongoing pandemic?

From whence will the forthcoming pandemic originate?
If we possessed knowledge of the nature and timing of the upcoming epidemic, we would take proactive measures to address it. However, the current situation necessitates a hopeful outlook and proactive preparation for potential negative outcomes.

“Undoubtedly, there are individuals who express concerns that this could potentially induce panic,” stated Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), during a panel in January 2024 regarding “Disease X,”  a provisional term for the yet-to-be-identified disease that is expected to have a widespread impact on the world in the near future.

He presented a counterargument. “It is more advantageous to proactively anticipate potential events, as they have occurred frequently in our past, and make necessary preparations.” We should not confront situations without enough preparation.

What is the consensus among specialists regarding the probable nature of disease X? There are several candidates in the competition: “We compile a yearly inventory of emerging diseases,” Ghebreyesus clarified, “and MERS, Zika, Ebola, and others could potentially be included.” COVID could be referred to as the inaugural disease X.

Possible scenarios for the emergence of the forthcoming pandemic encompass a spectrum of possibilities, spanning from speculative catastrophic scenarios wherein global warming triggers the release of previously unidentified viruses from arctic ice, akin to the depiction in the Chris Pratt time travel film, to alarmingly plausible instances of disease transmission from the animal kingdom, akin to the events that transpired shortly prior to the previous pandemic.

If you have observed a consistent pattern among those choices, you are correct: due to climate change, deforestation in the Amazon and Africa, and the increasing intrusion of human settlements into the natural environment, numerous experts believe that the occurrence of the next zoonotic disease pandemic is highly likely.

According to Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases at King’s College London, the current circumstances are conducive to the occurrence of epidemics.

According to her statement, the duration of the situation could range from two years to 20 years or even longer. However, she emphasized the importance of maintaining vigilance. It is imperative to maintain a state of vigilance, preparedness, and readiness to make sacrifices once more.

How can we address this issue?
In the absence of knowledge on the kind or timing of the upcoming pandemic, how can we effectively make the necessary preparations? Indeed, it is simpler than one may anticipate: “We can make arrangements for unforeseen circumstances,” stated Ghebreyesus; “there are fundamental actions that can be taken.”

He proposed the establishment of an early warning system or the enhancement of preparedness plans. “Due to the COVID pandemic, our hospitals were overwhelmed, both in terms of physical capacity and staff,” he emphasized.

The speaker further asserted that the COVID pandemic has brought to light some deficiencies within medical supply chains, perhaps leading to the closure of gaps.

Adam Kucharski, co-director of the Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, stated to Sky News that the UK’s NHS COVID app showed great potential for containing the spread of the pandemic.

He acknowledged that it would take difficult conversations regarding the compromises between public health and personal privacy. “However, by utilizing the digital contact tracing infrastructure present in certain Asian countries, it is possible to restrict disruption to individuals who are at a greater risk during a specific outbreak, rather than resorting to general measures.”

Frankly speaking, everything seemed highly feasible. Is it being done?

Navigating the upcoming epidemic
With minimal logistical planning and the inclusion of AI ethics courses, we should undoubtedly successfully navigate the upcoming pandemic. Is that correct?

Regrettably, that appears improbable at present. John Bell, a prominent immunologist and part of the UK’s Covid vaccination team during the epidemic, expressed in The Independent last year that despite our extensive knowledge, we are not adequately prepared for the upcoming pandemic.

He cautioned that the forthcoming epidemic has the potential to be considerably more catastrophic than its predecessor. It is imperative that we maintain a perpetual level of preparedness for forthcoming significant health crises, as failure to take action at present will result in a lack of forgiveness.

In the United States, the establishment of a novel governmental entity dedicated to global health and the prevention of pandemics may appear to be a positive progression. However, numerous commentators have highlighted that the country lacks essential infrastructure to withstand a pandemic. Notably, there is no universal healthcare system, and European readers should take a moment to understand that there is no entitlement to paid sick leave. Undoubtedly, during the COVID pandemic, about 25% of Americans had to make a decision between working while ill or forfeiting a day’s salary.

Despite experiencing significant global repercussions due to the global spread of COVID-19, the United States as an institution appears to have a notable reluctance to acquire substantial knowledge from the pandemic. Recent modeling estimates indicate that treatments such as social distancing and mask-wearing have proven to be highly effective in mitigating the transmission of the pandemic. Similarly, vaccines have demonstrated remarkable efficacy, resulting in the preservation of about 20 million lives within the initial year of their introduction. However, the country is witnessing the ongoing expansion of anti-vacxx and anti-science movements, which are permeating politics and exerting influence on legislation at both municipal and state levels.

Put simply, it appears unappealing.

The subsequent periods of lockdown
The Covid pandemic took us off guard, and there is a possibility that we may be taken off guard once more. What will the appearance of that be? A recurrence of the events of 2020, or an entirely distinct occurrence?

It is indisputable that significant changes have occurred since 2019, prior to the widespread awareness of the terms “novel coronavirus” or “Covid-19”. Irrespective of their level of effectiveness or extent of implementation, it is really accurate to say that numerous countries have already established pandemic infrastructure that was previously absent. This includes the implementation of contact-tracing applications and the provision of more flexible work arrangements for employees.

If the supply chain difficulties are rectified promptly, vaccine rollouts should be expedited. According to Devi Sridhar, the chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the US National Academy of Sciences’ committee on advancing pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine preparedness and response in 2021, the majority of governments are actively pursuing the objective of containing the spread of a virus within a 100-day timeframe. This timeframe allows for the approval, manufacturing, and distribution of scientific interventions, such as vaccines, diagnostic tools, or treatments, to the general public. This statement was published in The Guardian during the current week.

“In the United States, the recommended duration is 130 days from the identification of a pathogen until the entire population of the United States is provided with a vaccine,” she clarified, “and 200 days until there is a sufficient global supply.”

The nature of future lockdowns may vary significantly depending on geographical location, maybe resulting in the absence of lockdown measures altogether. “Shutdowns are a drastic policy measure that numerous governments employed in 2020 as a means to address the healthcare crisis,” Sridhar stated. “We currently have the opportunity to enhance containment methods and investigate strategies to ensure the safe operation of schools and businesses through more accurate public health interventions. These interventions should focus on improving understanding of transmission (such as increasing ventilation), diagnostics (testing for infectiousness), and data collection (surveillance of community prevalence).”

The successful implementation of preparedness procedures, as advocated by public health organizations over an extended period, is contingent upon the active engagement of governments and, when applicable, the business sector. This implies that—what about the upcoming pandemic? The appearance of it is uncertain.